2016 Year In Review: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for the year 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that 2016 was a second consecutive record year for home sales.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 113,133 home sales through TREB’s MLS® System – up by 11.8 per cent compared to 2015.

The calendar year 2016 result included 5,338 sales in December – an annual increase of 8.6 per cent.

The strongest annual rate of sales growth in 2016 was experienced for condominium apartments followed by detached homes.

“A relatively strong regional economy, low unemployment and very low borrowing costs kept the demand for ownership housing strong in the GTA, as the region’s population continued to grow in 2016,” said Mr. Cerqua.

The annual rate of growth for the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in the TREB market area accelerated throughout 2016 – from 10.7 per cent in January 2016 to 21 per cent in December 2016.

The overall average selling price for calendar year 2016 was $729,922 – up 17.3 per cent compared to 2015.

The pace of the annual rate of growth for the average selling price also picked up throughout the year, including a climb of 20 per cent in December.

“Price growth accelerated throughout 2016 as the supply of listings remained very constrained. Active listings at the end of December were at their lowest point in a decade-and-a-half. Total new listings for 2016 were down by almost four per cent. In 2016, we saw policy changes and policy debates pointed at the demand side of the market. If we want to see a sustained moderation in the pace of price growth, what we really need is more policy focus on issues impacting the lack of homes available for sale,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

October 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for October 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record 9,768 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2016 – up by 11.5 per cent compared to October 2015.

For the TREB market area as a whole, the largest annual rate of sales growth was in the condominium apartment market segment.

Detached home sales were up by 10 per cent year-over-year, driven predominantly by transactions in the regions surrounding Toronto.

“The record pace of GTA home sales continued in October, with strong growth observed throughout the month. As we move through November and December, we will be watching the sales and listings trends closely, in light of the recent policy changes announced by the Federal Minister of Finance. TREB will once again be conducting consumer survey work, in order to report on home buying intentions for 2017,” said Mr. Cerqua.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 19.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October 2016.

Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was $762,975 – up 21.1 per cent over the same time period. Double-digit increases were experienced for all major home types for the TREB Market Area as a whole.

“New listings were up slightly in October compared to last year, but not nearly enough to offset the strong sales growth. This meant that seller’s market conditions continued to prevail as buyers of all home types experienced intense competition in the marketplace. Until we experience sustained relief in the supply of listings, the potential for strong annual rates of price growth will persist, especially in the low-rise market segments,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Four Major Changes To Canada's Housing Rules

If you haven't already heard, the Canadian Department of Finance made an announcement earlier this month outlining a handful of changes that will have an impact on the mortgage/housing market.

The Globe & Mail followed the announcement pretty quickly with a detailed breakdown of all the changes, and how the affects might be felt.

Below is a reposting of that article in full. Enjoy!

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From the Globe & Mail, on October 3rd, 2016:

Four Major Changes To Canada's Housing Rules

The Liberal government has announced sweeping changes aimed at ensuring Canadians aren’t taking on bigger mortgages than they can afford in an era of historically low interest rates.

The changes are also meant to address concerns related to foreign buyers who buy and flip Canadian homes.

Below is a breakdown of the four major changes Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced Monday.

The current rules

Buyers with a down payment of at least 5 per cent of the purchase price but less than 20 per cent must be backed by mortgage insurance. This protects the lender in the event that the home buyer defaults. These loans are known as “high loan-to-value” or “high ratio” mortgages.

In situations in which the buyer has 20 per cent or more for a down payment, the lender or borrower could obtain “low-ratio” insurance that covers 100 per cent of the loan in the event of a default.

Mortgage insurance in Canada is backed by the federal government through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Insurance is sold by the CMHC and two private insurers, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company. The federal government backs the insurance offered by the two private-sector firms, subject to a 10-per-cent deductible.

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The change

Expanding a mortgage rate stress test to all insured mortgages.

What it is

As of Oct. 17, a stress test used for approving high-ratio mortgages will be applied to all new insured mortgages – including those where the buyer has more than 20 per cent for a down payment. The stress test is aimed at assuring the lender that the home buyer could still afford the mortgage if interest rates were to rise. The home buyer would need to qualify for a loan at the negotiated rate in the mortgage contract, but also at the Bank of Canada’s five-year fixed posted mortgage rate, which is an average of the posted rates of the big six banks in Canada. This rate is usually higher than what buyers can negotiate. As of Sept. 28, the posted rate was 4.64 per cent.

Other aspects of the stress test require that the home buyer will be spending no more than 39 per cent of income on home-carrying costs like mortgage payments, heat and taxes. Another measure called total debt service includes all other debt payments and the TDS ratio must not exceed 44 per cent.

Who it affects

This measure affects home buyers who have at least 20 per cent for a down payment but are seeking a mortgage that may stretch them too thin if interest rates were to rise. It also affects lenders seeking to buy government-backed insurance for low-ratio mortgages.

Why

The government is responding to concerns that sharp rises in house prices in cities like Toronto and Vancouver could increase the risk of defaults in the future should mortgage rates rise.

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The change

As of Nov. 30, the government will impose new restrictions on when it will provide insurance for low-ratio mortgages.

What it is

The new rules restrict insurance for these types of mortgages based on new criteria, including that the amortization period must be 25 years or less, the purchase price is less than $1-million, the buyer has a credit score of 600 and the property will be owner-occupied.

Who it affects

This measure appears to be aimed at lowering the government’s exposure to residential mortgages for properties worth $1-million or more, a category of the market that has increased sharply in recent years in Vancouver and Toronto.

Why

Vancouver and Toronto are the two real estate markets that are of most concern for policy makers at all levels of government. These measures appear to be targeted at those markets.

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The change

New reporting rules for the primary residence capital gains exemption.

What it is

Currently, any financial gain from selling your primary residence is tax-free and does not have to be reported as income. As of this tax year, the capital gains tax is still waived, but the sale of the primary residence must be reported at tax time to the Canada Revenue Agency.

Who it affects

Everyone who sells their primary residence will have a new obligation to report the sale to the CRA, however the change is aimed at preventing foreign buyers who buy and sell homes from claiming a primary residence tax exemption for which they are not entitled.

Why

While officials say more data are needed, Ottawa is responding to extensive anecdotal evidence and media reports showing foreign investors are flipping homes in Canada and falsely claiming the primary residence exemption.

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The change

The government is launching consultations on lender risk sharing.

What it is

Currently, the federal government is on the hook to cover the cost of 100 per cent of an insured mortgage in the event of a default. The federal government says this is “unique” internationally and that it will be releasing a public consultation paper shortly on a proposal to have lenders, such as banks, take on some of that risk. The Department of Finance Canada acknowledges this would be “a significant structural change to Canada’s housing finance system.”

Who it affects

Mortgage lenders, such as banks, would have to take on added risk. This could potentially lead to higher mortgage rates for home buyers.

Why

The federal government wants to limit its financial obligations in the event of widespread mortgage defaults. It also wants to encourage prudent lending practices.

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Five previous federal housing moves since 2008

Monday’s package of announcements is the sixth time since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis that Ottawa has taken policy action in response to concerns about Canada’s housing market. July, 2008: After briefly allowing the CMHC to insure high-ratio mortgages with a 40-year amortization period, then Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty moved to tighten those rules by reducing the maximum length of an insured high-ratio mortgage to 35 years.

February, 2010: Responding to concern that some Canadians were borrowing too much against the rising value of their homes, the government lowered the maximum amount Canadians could borrow in refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent of a home’s value, down from 95 per cent. The move also set a new 20-per-cent down payment requirement for government-backed mortgage insurance on properties purchased for speculation by an owner who does not live in the property.

January, 2011: The Conservative government under Stephen Harper tightened the rules further, dropping the maximum amortization period for a high-ratio insured mortgage to 30 years. The maximum amount Canadians could borrow via refinancing was further lowered to 85 per cent.

June, 2012: A third round of tightening brought the maximum amortization period down to 25 years for high-ratio insured mortgages. A new stress test was also introduced to ensure that debt costs are no more than 44 per cent of income for lenders seeking a high-ratio mortgage. Refinancing rules were also tightened for a third time, setting a new maximum loan of 80 per cent of a property’s value. Another new measure limited the availability of government-backed insured high-ratio mortgages to homes valued at less than $1-million.

December, 2015: The recently elected Liberal government moved to tighten lending rules for homes worth more than $500,000, saying it was focused on “pockets of risk” in the housing sector. The package of measures included doubling the minimum down payment for insured high-ratio mortgages to 10 per cent from 5 per cent for the portion of a home’s value from $500,000 to $1-million.

August 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for August 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record 9,813 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in August 2016.

While this sales result was 23.5 per cent above the number of transactions reported for August 2015, it is important to note that the majority of sales are reported on working days and there were two additional working days in August 2016 compared to 2015.

When the year-over-year discrepancy in working days is accounted for, the annual percentage change in sales is closer to 13 per cent.

“The conditions underlying strong demand for ownership housing remained in place, including a relatively strong regional economy, growth in average earnings and low borrowing costs. Unfortunately, we did not see any relief on the listings front, with the number of new listings down compared to last year. This situation continued to underpin very strong home price growth, irrespective of home type or area,” said Mr. Cerqua.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark for August 2016 was up by 17.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17.7 per cent on an annual basis to $710,410.

Both the MLS® HPI benchmarks and average prices for low-rise home types were up by double digits percentage-wise.

“Population in the GTA continues to grow. The resulting growth in households coupled with favourable economic conditions and low borrowing costs means that we remain on track for another record year for home sales. Against this backdrop, TREB will also be releasing new third-party research, and consumer and REALTOR® survey results throughout the fall and winter, with discussions focusing on foreign buying activity and issues affecting the supply of ownership housing,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Is It A Bad Idea To List Immediately After Labour Day?

Is It A Bad Idea To List Immediately After Labour Day? Photo

Summer doesn’t officially end until the Autumnal Equinox in the 3rd week of September, but we all know it really ends the day after Labour Day.

Every year, the Tuesday after Labour Day sees the kids go back to school, the white clothes go back into the closet, and the real estate market come back to life after the August slow-down.

A whole slew of new listings hit the market during that first week after Labour Day, and plenty of eager sellers (and realtors) are excited to get the ball rolling.

In my opinion though, it’s a good idea to consider waiting until the following week to list your home for sale.

The goal is to expose the property to as many buyers as possible, but a good chunk of the buyer pool is distracted at this time of year.

There’s so much happening in people’s lives during that first week after Labour Day, that there’s a good chance many of the new listings are going to slip-by unnoticed.

• People are busy getting back into the swing of things at work.

• Anyone working in a seasonal industry is likely focused on transitioning over to their fall market.

• People are coping with the fact that summer’s over and the cold & rainy weather is just around the corner (ugh).

• And then of course there are the families that have small children…

I know that my wife & I are going to be preoccupied these next few days with starting our oldest daughter in JK. If we were searching for a home right now we’d almost certainly be taking a week off from our search to concentrate on the start of school.

I myself have a new listing coming out soon, and we’re waiting until that 2nd week after Labour Day to go to market. My clients are fully onboard with the idea that we’ll reach the maximum number of potential buyers if we wait that extra week.

That’s not to say that a seller won’t still do well if they list right after Labour Day. And not every seller is even going to have the option of waiting until mid-September to list.

If you really want to maximize your odds of success though, you do need to consider all of the angles and strategize accordingly.

So, while it might not necessarily be a bad idea to list immediatley after Labour day, it might be a good idea to hang back and wait a week.

Here’s to a kick-ass fall market!

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

June 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for June 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 12,794 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in June 2016.

This result was 7.5 per cent higher than the 11,905 sales reported in June 2015.

In line with the prevailing trend so far this year, the number of new listings was down by 3.8 per cent.

"As I start my term as TREB President, we are certainly in an interesting environment for ownership housing. There is no doubt that demand is at a record level, but would-be home buyers continue to face an uphill battle against a constrained supply of listings, which has perpetuated strong price growth. Buyers and sellers alike continue to benefit from the value a REALTOR® brings to a transaction," said Mr. Cerqua.

"As the federal, provincial and local levels of government discuss housing policy in the coming months, issues affecting the lack of supply in the GTA should be of paramount importance. TREB will be undertaking, and making public, results of additional research in the second half of 2016, with the goal of proactively adding to the housing policy discussion," added Mr. Cerqua.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 16 per cent on a year- overyear basis.

The average selling price for all home types combined was up by a slightly higher annual rate of 16.8 per cent to $746,546.

The single-detached, semi- detached and townhouse market segments led the way in terms of price growth.

"When TREB surveyed consumer intentions for 2016, we found that the majority of GTA households who were likely to purchase a home continued to be pointed towards some form of ground oriented housing. This is why we continue to see strong competition between buyers in many neighbourhoods where supply remains constrained," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Understanding Your 2016 Property Assessment Notice From MPAC

Back in April, MPAC started mailing out their 2016 property assessment notices to property owners across the province of Ontario. If you don’t have yours yet - keep checking the mail; they should all be out by the fall.

I’ve spoken to a number of clients recently about their assessments, and most are asking the same two questions:

1. The assessed value is significantly less than what we know our property is worth. Is this normal?
2. The assessed value has increased since the previous assessment. Does the municipality increase my property taxes by the same rate?

These are both excellent questions! Below are my answers.

The market value of your property is very likely going to be higher than MPAC’s assessed value.

While some assessments in the City of Toronto do come-in fairly close to market value, MPAC’s numbers are usually quite a bit lower than what the property would sell for on the open market. Sometimes the difference is quite significant!

It’s not uncommon to see MPAC’s assessed value be hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars less than the current market value (depending of course on price point, location, etc.).

MPAC relies on a number of factors when doing their assessments, but apparently recent comparable sale prices don’t weigh heavily in the process!

Just because MPAC’s assessed value of your property has increased doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll pay more in property taxes.

In the City of Toronto, your property taxes should only increase if the value of your property has increased at a greater rate than the City average (unless of course the City has increased taxes as part of its budget requirements…).

Here’s a quote from the the FAQ section of the City’s property tax website:

• Reassessment at the municipal level, is "revenue neutral" and does not generate any additional revenue for the City. With a reassessment, the City must adjust the tax rate to remain revenue neutral, so no new funding comes to the City of Toronto as a result of property valuation changes.
• If your property value increases at a rate less than the City average, your property tax may decrease due to the reassessment.
• If your property value increases at a rate more than the City average, your property tax will increase due to reassessment.
• The City may need to increase taxes due to its budget requirements, however, this is separate and not related to reassessments.

Do you have any further questions about your assessment?

Maybe MPAC’s valuation actually seems too high to you, and you’re wondering if there’s cause to fight it? Give me a shout and I’ll be happy to provide you with the recent sales in your area. Who knows, you might be able to make a case…

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

May 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for May 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that there were 12,870 home sales reported through TREB's MLS® System in May 2016.

This result represented a new record for the month of May and a 10.6 per cent increase over the same period last year.

In contrast, the number of new listings was down over the same time frame by 6.4 per cent.

The decline in listings was experienced in both the low-rise and condominium apartment market segments.

"Whether we're talking about existing homeowners or people looking to purchase for the first time, there is no shortage of buyers in the marketplace today. So, while the record number of home sales through the first five months of 2016 is not necessarily surprising, it does sometimes mask the larger story in the GTA: the shortage of listings, which has resulted in strong upward pressure on home prices," said Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 15 per cent year-over-year in May 2016.

Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 15.7 per cent over the same period.

Low-rise home types, which remained in short supply in many GTA neighbourhoods, experienced the strongest price growth.

"Widespread competition between buyers of singles, semis and townhouses across the GTA has underpinned the robust annual rates of price growth experienced so far this year. With this said, however, it is also important to understand that tighter market conditions for condominium apartments have resulted in price growth well above the rate of inflation in this market segment as well," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Liberty Village, Givins/Shaw, And A Lesson In School Catchment Changes

 

How would you feel if you purchased a home in a particular neighbourhood specifically because of the school catchment, only to find later that your child would actually be going to a different (arguably less desirable) school?

That's basically what's happened to a bunch of young families who live in Liberty Village.

Up until April of this year it was understood that Liberty Village was part of the Givins/Shaw catchment.

About halfway through the month though, a letter went out informing everyone of a proposed redistricting. My family got the notice because we live in the catchment (my oldest daughter is starting kindergarten at Givins/Shaw in September, and her younger sister will be following suit in another couple of years).

The letter contained a poorly detailed map showing where the new boundaries would be; the map was vague and had a lot of people unsure of whether or not they’d be affected.

None of us got any real answers until the public meeting that was held a couple of weeks later in early May.

I was at that meeting, and what it all boils down to is this:

Givins/Shaw school is over capacity now and will certainly be unable to accommodate all of the students that are entering the system over the next bunch of years. The school board took a look at the neighbouring schools, and saw that the Queen Victoria school in Parkdale was well under capacity. So, it made sense for them to propose a rejigging of the catchment boundaries and send a chunk of the population over to Queen Victoria. Liberty Village will make up the bulk of that chunk.

Are parents in Liberty Village upset with this news? Without a doubt.

A bunch of Liberty Village parents were there at the meeting in May to voice their opinions about the proposed redistricting and about how all of this has been handled.

We heard from one father who's now going to have two sons in different schools at the same time. The logistics of dropping off and picking up his boys is going to be a daily hassle, and it’s going to significantly alter their after-school routine (which currently consists of quality-time spent in the Givins/Shaw area).

We heard from another parent who said their home search was based primarily around buying into the Givins/Shaw catchment. If they had known that the catchment was going to change, they never would've bought in Liberty Village.

From my perspective as a realtor, it's this last point that interests me most.

School catchment is usually at the top of the list of must-haves & deal-breakers when a young family shops for a new home. It’s certainly a big part of my focus when I’m working with buyers who fit into this category.

And while I’ve seen catchments get tweaked in the past (some clients of mine got a helluva deal in Roncesvalles last year, partially because of this catchment change), it’s rare to see an entire neighbourhood get redistricted the way that Liberty Village is going to be.

“Shouldn’t residents in Liberty Village have seen this coming?” I’ve heard some people say. “How can you realistically think that there wouldn’t eventually be some sort of change in such a quickly-developing area?”

Fair enough. But I think the fact that the parents weren’t notified of anything beforehand is one of the hardest things to swallow here.

And I think a number of parents assumed that other measures would’ve been taken.

A few alternative solutions were brought up by parents at the meeting: Why not build a new school in (or near) Liberty Village? What not rent space from the Artscape building on Shaw St? Why not take over the Señor Santos Catholic School at Ossington and Osler? Why not build an additional storey onto the current Givins/Shaw building? Why not consider adding portables at Givins/Shaw?

Many parents wondered why the TDSB didn’t start planning for all of this sooner; didn’t they see that the demographics in Liberty Village showed an increasing number of families?

The TDSB’s answer to this last question was simple: “We didn’t anticipate that families would be living in condos.”

Honestly, I think a lot of people didn’t anticipate it either. With the prices of freehold homes at such a high though, condo-living has become a much more viable option for many.

And the numbers are there to prove it.

While Liberty Village is home to plenty of young professionals (singles and couples), there’s no denying that families also make up a significant part of the population. Just take a look a this Toronto Star article from January 2016.

As it stands now, the board is reviewing the proposed redistricting and taking into account the feedback that was provided by parents at the meeting in May. We should have an update in the next couple of weeks about how the changes will be implemented.

It's important to note that not all children in Liberty Village will be going to Queen Victoria; the proposal outlines a set of criteria where certain children will be attending Givins/Shaw.  You can read the latest news about the proposal/review on the TDSB website here.

Regardless of the specifics, the catchment boundaries are changing in September 2017 and Liberty Village is going to be affected by the change more than anyone.

Going forward, this will hopefully serve as an example (to school boards, housing developers, and parents alike) that rapidly growing neighbourhoods/areas are subject to change, and plans need to be set in place for how to handle a growing school population. Other areas in the city have already done this, so there is certainly a precedent.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

April 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for April 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that there were 12,085 sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System in April 2016.

This result, which represented a record for the month of April, was up by 7.4 per cent in comparison to April 2015.

For the TREB market area as a whole, annual sales growth was experienced for all major home types except semi-detached houses.

In the City of Toronto, sales were down for detached and semi-detached houses as well as townhouses on a year-over-year basis.

This dip in sales in the “416” area code was due to a lack of low-rise listings.

Many would-be buyers were not able to find a home that met their needs.

“Demand remained strong for all types of ownership housing. This suggests that Canadians continue to see the value in investing in homeownership, and on May 17, I encourage all homeowners to celebrate with us on National Real Estate Day,” said Mr. McLean.

“While April’s sales result represented a new record for sales, that number could have been even higher if we had benefitted from more supply. In the City of Toronto in particular, some households have chosen not to list their home for sale because of the second substantial Land Transfer Tax and associated administration fee. The lack of available inventory, coupled with record sales, continued to translate into robust annual rates of price growth,” continued Mr. McLean.

Home selling prices continued to trend upward in April.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 12.6 per cent year-over-year.

The average selling price was up by 16.2 per cent.

The higher growth rate reported for the average home price, as compared to the MLS® HPI, points to a greater share of high-end home sales this year compared to last.

“As we move into the busiest time of the year, in terms of sales volume, strong competition between buyers will continue to push home prices higher. A greater supply of listings would certainly be welcome, but we would need to see a number of consecutive months in which listings growth outpaced sales growth before market conditions become more balanced,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

What A Difference A Season Makes

More than once over the course of these past few months, I've seen a house come on the market and sell for significantly more than what it was unsuccessfully listed at back in the fall/winter.

You could argue that this makes sense - that in a rising market a house should sell for more now than it would’ve 6 months ago.

Maybe, maybe not. (More on that towards the end of this blog post).

Regardless, it’s interesting to see such a scenario play out in real time with one specific property.

Here’s a breakdown of what happened with one of the houses I’m referring to:

House is listed in June 2015

Located in a very hot area in the west-end of the city.

Priced at $679,000, with a hold-back on offers.

Offer night comes and goes, and the property doesn’t sell.

They re-list the following day at $719,000, with offers welcome anytime.

After 3 more weeks without selling, they take it off the market.

Same house is re-listed in February 2016

7 months after unsuccessfully trying to sell, they’re back on the market.

Priced again at $719,000, with offers welcome anytime.

In less than 24hrs they receive 3 competing offers and the house sells for $755,000 (105% of list price).

No one wanted the house back in the summer, but by winter’s end there were three buyers tripping over each other to pay well above the asking price.

Wow! What a difference a season (or two) makes.

Does this necessarily mean that the same scenario would play out for every single house listed for sale in the Toronto real estate market right now? Is every single seller out there guaranteed to sell for significantly more if they just wait another 6 months?

Not necessarily. I’m sure there are sellers out there who did better 6 months ago than they would today, for a number of reasons; maybe they were competing with fewer similar listings than they would be today, maybe there were more buyers in the market that week for their particular house than there would be this week, etc.

On the whole though, prices are increasing and you’ll very likely pay more for a house 6 months from now. Just ask the three buyers who bid on the house in my example above.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

March 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for March 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced record TREB MLS® home sales for the first quarter of 2016 following a strong result for March transactions.

There were 10,326 sales in March and 22,575 sales in the first quarter.

The year-over-year growth rate for sales was 15.8 per cent for Q1 2016 and 16.2 per cent for March 2016.

For the TREB market area as a whole, double-digit year-over-year rates of sales growth were experienced for all major home types during the first quarter.

The positive annual growth in sales was not mirrored on the listings front.

The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System during March and the first quarter were down compared to the same periods in 2015.

“At the beginning of 2016, TREB’s outlook for the year pointed to a strong possibility of a second consecutive record year for home sales. This outlook was based, in part, on upbeat consumer survey results pointing to robust home buying intentions. It is clear that these upbeat intentions have translated into record first quarter results,” said Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for March 2016 was up by 11.6 per cent compared to March 2015.

The average selling price for all home types combined was up 12.1 per cent year-over-year in March and 13.6 per cent in the first quarter.

“Demand was clearly not an issue in the first three months of 2016, regardless of the housing market segment being considered. The supply of listings, however, continued to aggravate many would-be home buyers. We could have experienced even stronger sales growth were it not for the constrained supply of listings, especially in the low-rise market segments. The resulting strong competition between buyers has underpinned the double-digit rates of price growth experienced so far this year," said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Did There Really Need To Be 15 Offers?

Did There Really Need To Be 15 Offers? Photo

I was involved in a multiple-offer scenario last week, on a condo townhouse in the east end.

The property had a helluva view, and there was no doubt that it was going to attract plenty of interest and receive a bunch of offers.

“A bunch” ended up being an understatement.

There were 15 offers. FIFTEEN!

The property sold for 125% of the list price (it was listed at $409,000 and sold for $510,000).

With so many offers and such a high sale-to-list price ratio, you have to ask yourself, “Did they really need to under-list the property by that much?”

Couldn’t they have listed at, say, $449,000 (which would still be “underpricing” the property, albeit less drastically)?

While there was obviously one very happy “winner” on offer night, there were 14 other buyers that went home empty handed.

No doubt, some of those buyers went in offering less than $449,000. And despite submitting what they (and/or their realtor) thought was a reasonable offer, they never actually had a chance.

Couldn’t the sellers have been a bit less extreme in their pricing, and perhaps spared a handful of those hopeful buyers on offer night? Wouldn’t they still have ended up with a $510,000 sale price?

Truth be told, there’s no way to know for sure if they would’ve ended up at the same sale price (although I think they would have). Sure, it’s possible that the top offer wouldn’t have come in as high had there only been 7 or 8 offers (unlikely I think, but possible).

On a funny side note, the listing agent had made a point of saying that he felt that there was no need to put anyone through the hassle of going to get a certified cheque ahead of offer night, as it would only add undo stress and waste too many people’s time.

Okay…

But he felt it was reasonable to under-list the property by $75,000 - $100,000? He didn’t think that would result in wasting a bunch of people’s time? Ha!

Granted, the listing agent did a great job for his clients. He orchestrated a process that got them a record-high price for their property.

It’s a frustrating process though, when one happy seller and one happy buyer have to leave 14 other disappointed parties in their wake.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

January 2016 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB’s market report for January 2016:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,672 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in January 2016.

This result represented an 8.2 per cent increase compared to January 2015.

“It is clear that the handoff from 2015 to 2016 was a strong one. This is not surprising given that recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos suggested 12 per cent of GTA households were seriously considering the purchase of a home in 2016. Buying intentions are strong for this year as households continue to see home ownership as an affordable long-term investment,” said McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark Price for January 2015 was up by 11.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

The average selling price over the same period was up by 14.1 per cent.

The difference in the annual growth rates for the MLS® HPI and average price was largely due to a greater share of high-end detached homes sold in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto this year compared to last.

The MLS® HPI removes the impact of shifts in the share of different property types sold from one year to the next.

“Market conditions in January were tighter compared to a year earlier, with an annual increase in sales up against a decline in listings. This is why growth in the MLS® HPI benchmarks continued to be strong, especially for singles, semis and townhouses, where there has been a persistent lack of inventory,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

November 2015 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB's market report for November 2015:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,385 home sales through TREB’s MLS® System in November 2015 – up by 14 per cent compared to November 2014.

This result also represented the best result on record for the month of November.

Sales through the first eleven months of 2015 amounted to 96,401.

“Not only did we see a record sales result for November, but with one month left to go in 2015, we have already set a new calendar year record for home sales in the TREB market area, eclipsing the previous record set in 2007. Sales were up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. This suggests that the demand for ownership housing is widespread, from first-time buyers to long-time homeowners across the GTA,” said Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 10.3 per cent year over year in November.

The average selling price for all transactions was also up by a similar annual rate of 9.6 per cent to $632,685.

Annual rates of average price growth for November and the first eleven months of 2015 were similar, with the strongest rates of increase being reported for low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses.

“Demand for ownership housing has remained strong in the GTA throughout 2015, with sales generally increasing at a greater annual rate compared to new listings. This means that competition between buyers has strengthened in many neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. The end result has been upward pressure on home prices well above the rate of inflation in most cases,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

October 2015 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB's market report for October 2015:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,804 home sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2015.

This is the best result on record for the month of October.

“It is clear that many GTA households remain upbeat about home ownership because owning a home represents a high quality, long-term investment. We will see a big, new record this year for home sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System,” said Mr. McLean.

“Despite the record October result, I must point out that the Government of Ontario could hamper home sales in the near future. The Wynne government is seriously considering allowing municipalities throughout Ontario to institute a second land transfer tax on top of the existing provincial tax. Recent polling has shown that the great majority of Ontarians oppose this tax and would consider delaying a move if they were forced to bear the additional upfront cost,” added Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 10.3 per cent year over year in October.

Over the same period, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 7.3 per cent to $630,876.

Price growth continued to be driven by the low-rise market segments.

“Record sales coupled with a constrained supply of listings in many GTA neighbourhoods has underpinned very strong price growth throughout 2015. Even if we do see a greater supply of low-rise listings in the marketplace over the next year, market conditions will remain tight enough to see continued price growth well-above the rate of inflation,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

When Should A Seller Consider Accepting A Bully Offer?

When should a seller consider accepting a bully offer?

I am of the opinion that a seller is almost always going to do better if they avoid looking at bully offers, and wait until their scheduled offer night instead.

Every now and then though, a seller finds themselves in a situation where a bully offer is just too damn good to pass up!

Sometimes the price is so phenomenally above what they were expecting to get, that it's just not worth the risk of waiting and ending up with a lower price on offer night.

Sometimes the sellers are seriously stressed out by the entire process of having their home on the market, and the prospect of having it all over-and-done with is a no brainer.

And then there are times where it's actually looking like the home is not going to get the offers that the sellers want/expect on offer night. Case in point...

Earlier this year I had a listing in the west end of the city.

We spent a couple of weeks prepping the property to go on the market, and we decided that the best strategy would be to review offers on a specific date (the following Tuesday after the property initially hit the market).

I actually felt that we were pricing the home at the very top range of what it might be worth, and that we shouldn't necessarily expect to get multiple offers on offer-night. My clients appreciated where I was coming from, but we still felt that a hold-back on offers was the right strategy since comparable homes rarely come up for sale in the area.

Five days into the listing, I received a call from a buyer's agent, saying that her clients wanted to submit a bully offer. My clients were happy to look at it.

Once the offer was registered with my office, I did my duty and reached out to every single agent who had shown the property. And you know what? None of them had clients who were interested in submitting an offer. Not one.

None of them wanted to compete with a bully offer, and in fact, none of them were planning to submit anything on the scheduled offer night either!

It was quickly becoming apparent that this bully offer was probably the only offer we were going to see.

I told my sellers that they were likely going to do much better if we worked with the bully offer that night, as the buyers would be acting under the perceived threat of having to compete with other buyers on offer-night.

We ended up selling the property that night, with only the one offer, for above the list price.

Needless to say, my clients were very happy. The buyers were happy too, as they the secured the home they wanted (who knows if another buyer might've come out of the woodwork on the scheduled offer night and out-bid them?).

Bully offers are a tricky beast, and it's sometimes a tough call on whether or not to to work with them. Sometimes though, it just makes sense to take the money and run!

If you're thinking of selling your home, and you want an agent who knows when you should or shouldn't consider accepting a bully offer, feel free to contact us for more info.

September 2015 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

Following is TREB's market report for September 2015:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record number of transactions for the month of September through TREB’s MLS® System.

There was a combined 8,200 home sales reported for September 2015.

This result was up 2.5 per cent compared to September 2014.

TREB MLS® sales through the first nine months of 2015 amounted to 80,331, which also represented a record result and a 9.5 per cent increase compared to the first three quarters of 2014.

“We are on track for record home sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System this year. Barring a drastic shift in the economy over the next three months, total transactions reported by TREB Members in 2015 are expected to be at or near the 100,000 mark. This is a testament to the importance that GTA households put on home ownership as a long- term investment,” said Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 10.5 per cent year over year.

The average selling price for all home types combined was also up by 9.2 per cent annually to $627,395.

Growth in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark and the average price was driven by the low-rise market segments, including detached and semi- detached houses and townhouses.

“While September was the second straight month where annual growth in new listings outstripped annual growth sales, total active listings at the end of the month still remained below last year’s level. This, coupled with the record pace of sales experienced so far this year, suggests that competition between buyers will remain strong as we move into the fourth quarter. Expect strong rates of price growth to continue through the remainder of 2015 and into 2016,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

August 2015 Market Stats: Infographic & Report

 

Following is TREB's market report for August 2015:

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,998 residential transactions through the TREB MLS® System in August 2015.

This result represented a 5.7 per cent increase compared to 7,568 sales reported in August 2014.

On a GTA-wide basis, sales were up for all major home types.

The annual growth rate in new listings was greater than the annual growth rate in sales, but active listings at the end of August were still down compared to last year.

This suggests that sellers’ market conditions remained in place, especially where low-rise home types like singles, semis and townhouses were concerned.

“Buyers in the GTA remain confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term. They see ownership housing as a quality investment that has historically produced positive returns while at the same time providing owners with a place to live in their chosen community,” said Mr. McLean.

Both the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark and the average selling price for all home types combined were up substantially in August compared to the same period in 2014, with both increasing by approximately 10 per cent year-over-year.

“A record year for home sales continued to unfold in August as competition between buyers exerted upward pressure on selling prices. It was encouraging to see annual growth in new listings outstrip annual growth in sales, but we will need to see this for a number of months before market conditions become more balanced," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

If you’re thinking of making a move and would like to know how I can help, feel free to contact me for more info.

For complete copies of TREB’s Monthly Market Watch Reports, visit my archives here.

Your Realtor Is Full Of S**t!

With Labour Day behind us now, the fall real estate market has officially begun!

Just like last year, and the years before that, we're going to see a ton of new listings hit the market this week. And inevitably, some of those listings are going to be overpriced.

There are a handful of reasons why a seller chooses to overprice their home. In this post I want to focus on just one of those reasons: The listing agent lied to the sellers about the true market value of the property.

The Sunshine Approach

The manager at the brokerage where I started my real estate career referred to this as "The Sunshine Approach"; the idea being that the listing agent is "blowing sunshine" up the seller's arse by deliberately overvaluing the home in order to get the listing.

I see it happen all the time. A seller interviews two or three realtors, and ultimately chooses the one who suggests the highest list price. The seller gets stars in their eyes, and is fooled into thinking that the ridiculous list price is actually achievable.

The listing agent's plan is simple: continually work on the seller for price reductions until the home finally sells (almost always for less than market value).

Isn't The Seller Partially To Blame?

Yes, the seller is often partially to blame here. Especially when the other two realtors they interviewed suggested lower list prices (which were no doubt backed-up by tangible market data and past sale prices in the neighbourhood).

Instead, the seller chose to list with the one who came up with the highest number, in spite of what the market data showed.

The seller in this situation sometimes knows, in their gut, that it's too good to be true.  But flattery and the promise of an unprecedented sale price get the better of them.

Have I ever taken an overpriced listing?

Yes, of course I have taken an overpriced listing.

The difference being, the sellers knew from the beginning where I stood on the value of the home.

I made it clear to them that the list price they were choosing was too high, that there were risks involved with overpricing, and that a price reduction would eventually be needed.

It's certainly not the best way to sell a home, but sometimes a seller is determined to "try their price first", even if doing so is going to potentially have a negative impact on the final outcome.

In the end, a seller needs to be realistic and question any advice that sounds too optimistic.

If you're interviewing more than one realtor, be cautious if one of them values your home significantly higher than the others.

A little sunshine is good for your health, but too much will leave you burned.

If you're thinking of making a move and would like an honest valuation of your home, feel free to contact us for more info.